I spent the morning of Wednesday talking to some hard-core left-wing Israelis. The thoughts they shared with me were quite clear: Hit them hard. Hezbollah, Beirut, Syria, whoever. Those who might have hoped for a more restrained response by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert should think again. It's not just the Arab leaders and the terrorists testing the new government - it's the Israelis too. And most Israelis already know that Olmert can be the moderate, restrained, rational kind of leader. Its Olmert the bully they want to see now - that is, if there is one.I have to admit it, there' s something to be said for acting decisively when you need to.
Israel chose to pressure the Lebanese government - and on principle, it's the right move. The government should be responsible to the territory under its jurisdiction; the government should make sure that no terror organization uses the land a base from which it will attack its neighbor.Which leads Israel back into another Lebanese Vietnam, which it really doesn't need with Gaza (and bits of the West Bank) heating up simultaneously. Not a pretty picture.
But what if the government really can't handle it? Do we prefer chaos? That's too risky. Do we want to replace the government with a friendlier one? That's been tried in 1982 and failed miserably. Are we prepared to give the current government more tools with which to deal with Hezbollah? Just imagine Israel's reaction if some countries start sending Lebanon more weapons.
Prediction: Olmert will hit back hard, and Peretz will either undergo a war conversion to a pragmatic hawk-dove or be dropped like a sack of potatoes for a right-wing govt. That's his only option, otherwise he's gone within a year and a half, two years, tops, courtesy of a no-confidence vote, and Kadima dissolves. This will only be accelerated if things don't quiet down within the next month.
2 comments:
Counter-prediction: Peretz will retain his post and his morals but slowly slink out of sight until nobody remembers who the heck he was. Kadima won't dissolve unless all its members re-polarize over the issue of how to deal with the Palestinians (and now Hezbollah) in the West Bank and Gaza. Shimon Peres will stick with whichever side offers him the longest ball-stroking, and Olmert will either go down as a huge success or a huge failure, depending on the outcome of all this. Netanyahu will try to get back in the political arena, claiming that he's the only one with experience dealing with Arab terrorists, but the Israeli public won't fall for it and won't elect him again.
I await your response with interested skepticism.
Counter-prediction: Peretz will retain his post and his morals but slowly slink out of sight until nobody remembers who the heck he was.
At this point, I don't think he can do both, particularly because he has the most important cabinet position right now. Either he goes along with Olmert, he gets sacked, or he quits the govt voluntarily. The only way your option could come to pass is if Olmert starts trying to outmaneuver him, which will almost certainly lead to a confrontation.
I just don't see Peretz as being the kind of guy who would be willing to turn Labor back into a right-wing (or "moderate" as the case may be) fig leaf, a-la Peres or Fuad. It's too much a matter or personal pride and reputation. Either he'll outright acquiese, quit, or be fired. I just don't think he'd accept being Olmert's silent partner flunky.
Kadima won't dissolve unless all its members re-polarize over the issue of how to deal with the Palestinians (and now Hezbollah) in the West Bank and Gaza.
Without a strong and charismatic leader, Kadima has one Knesset term at most. Much less so if Olmert doesn't do well here. If Olmert falls, I think Kadima will follow, particularly given that its MKs are already starting to dice each other up. Such is the fate of the bi-partisan party.
Bibi- Lord help us. I'm sure he'll run again, but seeing as now he's trying to weasel his way into Kadima's heart, I think the right is going to be too pissed to vote for him anymore. Let's just hope the left won't be so stupid as to believe that he's had a change of heart, a-la Sharon. Though without Bibi as the right's spokesman, I kind of shudder to think what new specimen will emerge from the primordial ooze- how can this not help people like Mosh "Go Jewish Iran" Feiglin?
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