Sunday, January 14, 2007

Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics, and Plagiarism

Mike Gallagher is touting a study indicating that a lot of illegal immigrants are getting arrested- repeatedly, no less.

in a group of 100 illegal immigrants who were arrested and let go, each of these people had been arrested, on average, six times each.

Give us your poor, your tired, and those yearning to become habitual criminals in America, eh?

One would think this is a pretty big story. After all, the image that pro-illegal activists try to portray is one of poor, hard-working, wonderful people who simply do the miserable jobs that no lazy American would bother to do, at a fraction of the living wage.

I guess some of those “jobs” include robbing, raping, plundering, and otherwise violating the laws of our land.

Gallagher willfully ignores possible explanations for the high rate of arrests, including but not limited to racial profiling, inability to communicate with officers or complainants, ignorance of the law, and, oh yeah, being arrested for doing minor and/or stupid things, like loitering, trespassing or public intoxication, to say nothing of whether they were actually CONVICTED.

Gallagher conveniently avoids giving us any information about what the arrests were for, so we really have no way of knowing if the men in this study are the evil Latino Vikings he makes them out to be. Looking at the actual report (which he didn't bother to link to), we find this paragraph:

we judgmentally selected a sample of 100 criminal histories, which we reviewed for evidence of arrests of criminal aliens subsequent to June 30, 2003. The criminal histories for 73 of the 100 individuals documented at least one arrest after that date. Those 73 individuals accounted for a total of 429 arrests, with 878 charges and 241 convictions. These figures represent an average of nearly six arrests per individual.

The charges for the 73 individuals ranged from traffic violations and trespassing to more serious crimes, such as burglary or assault. Some [482]of those charges included: 166 drug-related; 37 immigration-related; 213 burglary, robbery, or theft; 40 assault; 10 property damage; 13 weapons charges; and 3 terrorist threats [defined as misdemeanor charges based on domestic disputes].


Stop the illegals before they double-park again! Oh yeah, let's have some fun with that math- of those 73 repeat offenders, it looks like only half of those arrests led to conviction. Could it be that some of those arrests weren't justified? Heaven forbid.

Lastly, there's the flip-side of repeat offender statistics: released criminals often continue to commit crimes. This isn't a racial thing or an illegal immigrant thing, it's a human nature thing and possibly a commentary on the effects of the justice/prison system. Nice try, though, Mike. Oh, and incidentally, apparently the Justice Dept was FORCED to use the sample of 100 because the FBI information couldn't be effectively interpreted on its own:

The FBI provided us with nearly 433,000 individual text files that were not searchable by automated means. Because the files were not in a searchable format, we were not able to quantify all the arrests that occurred subsequent to the cutoff date for FY 2004 funding... Instead, we reviewed a judgmental sample...

And they note,

Based on this limited sample, we cannot statistically extrapolate the number of offenses committed by undocumented criminal aliens who were released from local custody without a referral to ICE... but if this data is indicative of the full population... the rate at which released criminal aliens are rearrested is extremely high

Yes, it may be high, but the reasons for this are probably not the not so-subtle ones being offered by Gallagher and his ilk, namely, that illegal aliens are the spawn of Satan, or possibly Eve and the serpent.

What's that you ask? Let's have more fun with fake stats? OK... how's this? Jim Kouri, CPP (I don't know either), is ecstatic at the fact that Operation Predator has made 6,085 arrests since 2003, and that 85% of those arrests have "
involved foreign nationals in this country whose child sex crimes make them eligible for removal from the United States". Only one problem- well, two. First, I don't know what the 85% refers to- is it that the aliens can be deported? Or is it that 85% of those arrested are foreign nationals? Given that Operation Predator is a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement program and TARGETS foreign nationals, this doesn't seem very surprising. Maybe there's something else the 85% refers to...

Hey, I know, we can look at an old column of Kouri's. Let's see...

85% OF CHILD PREDATORS ARE CRIMINAL IMMIGRANTS

Hmm, well, that's something. Let's read on, shall we?

Top officials at the Department of Homeland Security recently revealed that arrests for child sex crimes during the first two years of Operation Predator have exceeded 6,000 and 85 percent of them are criminal immigrants.

Ah, so they're illegal aliens? Or are they immigrants who are also criminals?

The majority of the arrests under Operation Predator - roughly 85% - have involved foreign nationals in this country whose child sex crimes make them removable from the United States.


That wasn't very helpful, Jim. In fact, this all sounds kind of familiar.

Hey, wait a minute-

Kouri 2005:

Since Operation Predator began on July 9, 2003, the initiative has resulted in 6,085 child predator arrests throughout the country - an average of roughly 250 arrests per month and eight arrests per day.


Kouri 2007:

With federal, state and local law enforcement working together, the initiative has resulted in 6,085 child predator arrests throughout the country -- an average of roughly 250 arrests per month and eight arrests per day.


The son of a bitch plagiarized HIMSELF! And got his stats horribly wrong! According to WND,
Predator has caught over 9,000 predators since 2003 (and they even interview Kouri for the article!!). Mazel Tov Jim, you may be the laziest and stupidest bastard I've seen in a long time. If you're going to rip off your own stuff, AT LEAST bother with some cut-and-paste stuff for the statistics. Come ON!

Incidentally, according to the ICE (which is from 2005, so Kouri has no excuse):

Targets: Foreign national sex offenders (deportable aliens)
Child sex tourists
Human smugglers and traffickers of children
Traders, producers, distributors of Internet child pornography

Arrests:

More than 6,000 individuals arrested nationwide, including foreign nationals and U.S. citizens.

More than 85% of arrests are of foreign national sex offenders.
  • Approximately 40% of these are lawful permanent residents.
  • Approximately 40% of these are illegal aliens.

Oh REALLY? So the 85% are "criminal aliens" in the sense that they have broken the law by having sex with little kids, NOT that they are illegal aliens. Boo to Jim and WND, both of whom tout the 85% foreign national figure, without bothering to mention that a good half of those people came into the country legally. Jerks.

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