Israeli elections breakdown.

First, the results:

Kadima-28
Labor-20
Shas-13
Yisrael Beiteinu-12
Likud-11
Arab Parties-10
NU/NRP-9
Gil (Pensioners)-7
UTJ-6
Meretz-4

Now for some ground-breaking analysis.

Who are the losers here?

Well, the Israelis, first of all. This was the lowest turn-out in the nation's history, and it's not exactly like there weren't some important issues involved. Theories abound, but a good bet is simple disgust with "politics as usual" in Israel, as Ynet editor Andrew Freidman wrote yesterday. This applies to both left and right, as well as the "new center", and is rather troubling, to say the least.

Next: Likud. It went from its biggest election win to its second-worst showing ever (Herut got 10 seats in the 1951 elections for the 2nd Knesset). The fact that even after the Kadima split, Likud couldn't even keep half of its remaining 27 seats speaks volumes as to how disenchanted the public was with it (both from the left and right). Bibi described the result as a "body blow" to the party, and he's right. Gideon Sa'ar was quoted this afternoon saying something like, "It's really painful to find out we are in the minority opinion in this country." The truth hurts, don't it? With the Likud the 5th largest party now, it is possible that we have just witnessed the final steps of the "reshuffling" move Sharon started- with Kadima ascendant (sort of- see below) and Labor doing well enough, Yisrael Beteinu seems to have effectively positioned itself to become the new dominant right-wing party. All that spells disaster for the Likud. If its peak was in 1977, we may have seen its death-knell today.

Kadima is also a loser here. While 28 seats is more than decent, the significant loss from its polls less than a week ago (what happened to mid-30s?) speaks volumes about how the party is essentially perceived as ideology-less. Olmert should feel accomplishment at having kept the party's momentum up and won the elections, but he also needs to be extremely attentive to this wake-up call. He needs to prove himself, and fast.

Some winners:

Yisrael Beteinu, first of all. Liberman has quite successfully managed to navigate his small immigrant party through the ranks and towards electoral gains. Leiberman is also very politically astute, and seems to be, above all, a pragmatist. He's got his eyes on future campaigns where his party becomes more dominant, so you can be sure that he'll be using this term to try to work on his image. If it's to his advantage to oppose Olmert and supplant the Likud as the major right-wing opposition, he will. At the same time, if Olmert plays his cards right, it shouldn't be too hard to snap Liberman up into a coalition, firmly cementing his parliamentary majority.

Labor. While they didn't dramatically increase their seats, the ability to hold onto them (unlike Likud) after having lost people to Kadima is notable. It's also a lot better to be the second-largest party by only seven seats as opposed to twenty-one. Labor has all but ensured a place in the government, and should be able to play a prominent role in the arenas of both economic and diplomatic policy.

Shas. Sorry to say it, but as the 3rd largest party and a strong mandate from Ovadia Yosef, is seems likely that our favorite black-hatters are going to be making their presence felt again.

Gil. The new Shinui, this one-issue party led by, as Doron Rosenblum put it, a guy who "who until yesterday was basically someone whose name sounds like the late general Rafael 'Raful' Eitan" has managed to claw its way into the Knesset thanks to Kadima apathy, dedicated seniors, guilty middle-agers, and, possibly... trendy teenagers? Whatever the reason for their success, these guys are also going to be throwing their weight around, and the present wisdom suggests they'll probably go left on issues relating to the Palestinians.

Predictions:

At this stage, a lot of people seem to be confident that Olmert is going to swing left and go with a Labor coalition. This may also include Shas, Yisrael Beteinu, Gil, and/or Meretz. Unfortunately, any coalition is going to need the inclusion of either Shas or Yisrael Beteinu, and that's where things might get tricky, particularly when Olmert tries to start implementing "Convergence", or Disengagement, pt. 2, where keeping his majority will be crucial in order to avoid a repeat of Barak's post-Camp David II collapse. It seems likely, however, that Labor, Gil and Meretz will have no problem backing Olmert, which will only require him to woo Y.B. or Shas (UTJ would also probably go along with it, for the right price). Push comes to shove, I'd be willing to bet that Liberman would be willing to follow Olmert if he thought it would benefit him. That would leave the haredi parties and the various right-wing parties screaming bloody-murder, but basically unable to do a damn thing about it. I also suspect that after the Disengagement fiasco, Olmert might be more willing to go with a secular "sometimes"-rightwing Zionist than someone like Shas, who have very clear lines they won't cross, and who demonstrated this before.

Bottom line: a decent victory for Olmert, and notable for Peretz, who nobody thought could accomplish anything. Both of them have the opportunity to raise their parties up now, and prove themselves. And if they want to know what the consequences will be if they disappoint... well, they can just look at Bibi.

==

Misc. Links:

A7 points out some interesting analysis reg. Kadima's seat gains (and right-wing in-fighting).

Meanwhile, the Labor Party is celebrating the modest performance of Kadima – which basically inherited the Shinui Party’s mandates (15) and retained those Knesset seats its members held up until Tuesday (14).

MK Danny Yatom (Labor) said that the results are a "great blow to Kadima, and bring great joy to Labor."

Both Ha'aretz and the Jerusalem Post have some thought-provoking pieces on the results. And A7 also gives some interesting info reg. UTJ's base (which doesn't seem to have been reflected in the elecitons) and more IDF-Mafal crises.

Oh, and Yediot has this cute/mean piece (see title) on the smaller parties hoping & waiting for better news. Apparently Marzel was convinced he was going to get in. That's cute. Not as cute as the Gil-niks, though. What nice punims!

Got that, Baruch? The potheads got more votes than you. Go home. (I bet Boaz Wachtel has something that will ease the pain, if you ask nicely.)